Now The Fun Part — An Election Night Preview

I am a political wonk and an unabashed patriot. When everyone I know has had it with campaigns and politics, I am still digging in. I can’t help myself. National election day is Christmas and Opening Day and perfect tacos all rolled into one.

In 2016, I wasn’t following Trump; I was getting way into the weeds of the Clinton campaign and saw it for the hubristic disaster it was. I knew she was going to lose. This time? In the middle of last week, I relaxed. I saw that what the Harris/Walz team was doing was working. And on Saturday, with the drop of the Selzer Iowa poll I was done. Harris has this.

I think the endless polling is missing 3 critical things. Women are fucking pissed off about Dobbs and body autonomy. Harris is genuine on this issue and has given a home to the rage that so many women feel. (Yes, and many of us men.) She gave them something they can do, and by god, they are doing it at the polls. Trump doubling down and taking credit for Dobbs was bear putting its face in the trap. National polling is using 2020 models as a base. Nonsense. Those models grossly underestimate the women’s vote. The gender gap is stunning. Trump’s ‘bro’ strategy is a loser. Bros Boast. Women Vote. Simple as that.

If you are not looking at the right sources, it hard to see the killer instinct of the Harris ground game in swing states. I look at Threads to see the stories from actual canvassers across the nation. In 2008, because I the policy guy on the Nick Fish campaign, I was mostly at my laptop all day at our way too big campaign headquarters. We got a call that the Obama field warriors were parachuting in and they needed a place to crash as they were ahead of the getting homes lined up. All that day, they kept arriving from states that had already voted. Mostly young people, but few elders, I helped lay out sleeping bags and showed them where they could get a cheap burrito. They were exhausted, unkempt, unshaven but full of conviction that they were on the right mission. When the room settled, they mostly fell asleep. Back at my laptop, I fought back tears seeing our democracy kept alive by those kids crumpled up in sleeping bags around me. The numbers of calls and door knocks for Harris is beyond even Obama 2008. People come from all over the country, burn their vacations to door knock. Hell, I saw a crew that came from London to Pennsylvania because they felt they were needed. If there is a vote to be had, the Harris foot weary team will find it.

My third solace? Republicans. What? I am an independent who for years has lived in the land of the never Trumpers. What they say most clearly is that the Republican party is dead and not coming back. MAGA is the party now. But this is an enormous opportunity for Harris/Walz. About 15% of old school Republicans will not vote for Trump. Once, not twice. They were Haley protest voters in Republican primaries. By the lights at the Bulwark and other anti-Trump Republicans, Harris has played their outreach almost perfectly. Canvasers who have gotten the wink and the nod at doors and neighbors who report that Trump signs and flags have suddenly disappeared from their neighbor’s yards corroborate the Harris commercials about secret Trump voters. I think that when the story is written about this campaign we will all owe a debt to Republicans who voted their values and not their cult.

What were you doing at 4 PM on Saturday? I was refreshing my phone waiting for the Ann Selzer’s poll to drop from Iowa. So were all the other political wonks. I had to read the topline numbers several times. She has Harris up 3 in Iowa. Trump won Iowa by 9 in previous races. Selzer called that too. Her method that is the gold standard as she does not use the past to study the future. She looks at what is. Her poll in 2016 was the death knell of the Clinton campaign. Believe Selzer. What was driving her numbers? Women, especially white women over 65. Every male advantage in the poll was blown away by angry conservative women. Sometimes 2 to 1. All older women know the world before Roe, and guess what, they are telling those stories to their daughters and granddaughters.

Anger is the white hot emotion. It has fueled Trump and MAGA, and don’t get me wrong, with isolated information bubbles, it still works. But Trump is fading. His closing argument is all anger. It is an emotion that burns itself out. His rallies are a death march of half full arenas and bored cult members. The show is played, and he knows it. Stories inside his campaign smell of panic as they turn on each other. Fire up the schadenfreude.

So, there it is. So I have been sleeping easy. Oh, there will be endless fuckery by MAGA to reject the results. But Congress changed the electoral college act to block the paths of 2020. And, the Harris campaign is insanely lawyered up with go teams in every critical state. Trump has no new tricks and even the early attempts to mess with our elections have already been rejected by courts. Keep Calm and Carry on.

This is my very educated guess. I also think Democrats will take the House and lose the Senate. And… if I am correct, trends will tell us by midnight tomorrow if I am right. If Trump is underperforming in red states, watch out kids….

Vote. Take care of your friends and family and most importantly… Know hope.

JHB

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Biden and Trump – Two Raging Narcissists

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

― George Orwell, 1984

Surrounded by venal enablers, our two candidates have morphed into the same person. Oh, we always understood Trump’s pathology, fully on display in his convention speech. No amount of praise and false love will fill the hole in his soul. But Joe Biden fooled us, didn’t he? Clearly in steep mental decline, he has become what he claims to hate, the grasping narcissist, demanding we ignore what we see and exclaiming to the sky, in a messianic pose, that he is the only who can save us from evil. Saying only god can dissuade him. Think of it, “only God above.”

As I watch this tragedy unfold, I am drawn constantly to my recently departed father. We are car people, the Blackwood family. Dad was the icon. He and mom travelled hundreds of thousands of miles side by side. Going for a ride was how you relaxed, how you talked it out, and how you absorbed the world around you. In his mid-80s, dad decided he was going to drive from Southern California to Phoenix to see his beloved Dodgers at spring training. So, I got his tickets for him, then he loaded his walker in his car and set out. He saw the Dodgers, then made a side trip to see the Grand Canyon one more time. He was in his element behind the wheel.

One day, after that trip, dad announced he was selling his car because the pain in shoulder was so aggravated by the seatbelt. But here’s the nature we don’t see in Biden. He said he could bear the pain, but he needed to stop driving because he was worried his pain would distract him and he might accidentally harm someone else with his car. This is the grace Biden does not have. We should all be so aware of ourselves and others to make such a momentous decision.

Millions of Americans have experienced the dynamics that faced my father. There is that moment that for the sake of others, the family gathers and tells their elder that it is time to take the car keys. We all have seen this happen or heard the stories of friends who have had to do this. It is through these eyes that people, not elites, not the media, we normies living our lives, now see Joe Biden. He is a man who has done good work, and now, like all of us one day, the debt to father time must be paid.

Here, the stakes are mindboggling. It’s America that will pay if the other mentally decaying old man is elected. I called for Biden not to run in an essay over a year ago. I have gone from concern to frustration to rage at seeing him the last few months. How dare he say that if he loses, he will be satisfied if he did his best. That is a narcissist speaking. Worse, Joe Biden will be fine if Trump wins. He is just another rich, old white guy completely insulated from the impending disaster. I don’t give a damn about his feelings, Jill’s problem or the goals of is sycophants. If he is in anguish, he brought it upon himself. Be gone or be damned.

Clearly, the only path to stop Trump is a younger candidate. This was always true and is now in stark relief. Last night, in his speech, the evil MAGA icon rolled over and exposed his belly. He is vulnerable, waiting for a political pummeling. Yet today, what do we hear from Biden? He’s still in and will be back next week. NEXT FUCKING WEEK!!!? America has to wait for yet another recovery as Trump gains more momentum?

This is time for bold moves and chaos. The media loves chaos and dumping Biden for a new, younger candidate would suck in all the air in the race. Embrace chaos. Embrace change. The contrast in age and energy alone will give any candidate a 5 point bump. Harris? For every racist, misogynist we lose, we retake young people and independents among the 70% of voters starved for someone new. Right now, all is lost. President, House and Senate. We have the history. A presidential wipeout destroys layers of down ballot Democrats. If a new candidate merely keeps it close, we would could take the House as a bulwark to Trump. The math in the Senate was always awful. Democrats are toast there. But there we have the filibuster if we can keep it in range.

Since I was 12 years old, I have been a political junkie. I love it. I love America. I love the business of campaigns. But now, if Biden stays in, I don’t know. I may have to walk away from my passion to save my soul. We are hanging by a thread. Don’t ignore the evidence of your eyes. Contact your representatives and tell them Biden is done. This is a change election. Either Trump can be the change or a younger Democrat. Time to choose.

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Biden and the Democratic Party Failed Us

Typical Memory Care resting face. Copyright Guardian

This morning, I woke up livid. I am angry that Joe Biden has revealed himself, not as a patriot, but as the most typical, hubris infected narcissist of a politician. Last night, the mentally ill Trump rolled over and exposed his belly before Biden and his doddering, clueless opponent could not get off a single attack line. Nothing but gibberish and over-prepped 1 and 2 and 3 and 4… who the fuck cares!? I am almost inconsolably worried that in his aged incompetence Biden has now made us all vulnerable to the evil around the world. I mean, what America hater with ill-intent wouldn’t exploit this moment? As an independent voter, I depend on the two parties to bring me suitable candidates. The Democrats, faced with an existential threat to our republic, brought me that sad, barely functional mess of a man. Damn them for putting millions of us that this position.

I was texting with friends last night. One by one, they said they couldn’t watch anymore. Not me. I stayed for the end and beyond. If you kept watching, here is what you saw. Typically, after a debate, the two candidates walk forward to take applause and greet well-wishers. The room was empty. For a moment, both candidates stood at their podiums, looking out at nothing. Wisely, Trump turned on his heal and left. Jill suddenly appeared at Joe’s side. Again, they stood staring at nothing. Then Joe decided to shake the hands of the CNN reporters. Jill reached and took a firm hold on Joe’s left hand. They walked forward and Joe turned sort of sideways, staring down at the first step. Jill studied the president as Joe hesitantly reached his foot out for the step. Jill guided him all the way down. Holy fuck, I thought, I have done that same thing with my 90-year-old father. Jill knows. The staff knows. Everyone around him knows. Joe can no longer function in the world without help. If he was a retired bus driver, we’d say, good for the loyal Jill. But he isn’t. His wife is the chief enabler of this charade.

About 16 months ago, in an essay begging Joe to declare victory and leave, I wrote this:

The power of the presidency is a narcotic. The addiction’s most obvious symptom is a creeping narcissism. In the bubble around the White House the occupant comes to believe they are essential. Joe now believes he is the only one who can save us. He’s wrong. We would be fine without him. But the rationalization means he ignores what he knows about himself. The people around him, without considering it, become his props. They adjust presentation and schedule. They make excuses in the wake of mistakes. And, especially in this case, because he has had success and is a genuinely good guy, they don’t want to fail or abandon him. Who wants to tell grandpa it’s time to hand over the keys to the car for the safety of him and everyone else on the road?

Remember, Biden demanded t his early date to address the age questions. Sequestered away at Camp David, Biden staff saw for days what we saw last night. They knew he was finished. Do you see now why Biden has fewer open press conferences than any other president. Even Reagan, in early-stage dementia, gave more access to the media. Everyone in the White House knows. Democratic leadership knows. America suspected, but after last night we know. Joe Biden cannot serve another 4 years as President. Age comes to us all. In Joe’s case, it yelled from the screen at 45 million viewers last night.

Today, every rational analyst is calling for Biden to step down and give way to the next generation. Still, this morning he went to North Carolina and reading from a teleprompter was coherent if not feisty. Fools’ gold. His spontaneous remarks were seconds long. To counter last night’s disaster, he needs to do 4 events like that a day followed by national press conferences and one-on-one reporter interviews. He needs a hectic campaign schedule with complete openness to the public. But that will not happen because he simply can’t do it. Everyone around him knows. We now know.

The polls, which are already awful, will only get worse. I just listened to focus group analysis where potential Biden leaners all said they like him but will not support him. The only chance we have is for someone new to jump in at the convention and completely change the narrative. That’s it. Otherwise, we hand our sweet country over to Trump and the fascists. Hell, almost any other Democrat would be up 10 points today!

The two-minute ending statement at a debate is the most painfully, carefully crafted speech any candidate will ever deliver. It must be about the future. The messages are clear and repeatable. No 2 minutes ever gets more loving attention. Biden’s statement last night was utter gibberish, delivered with no clarity or passion. It was the rant of an old man too long at the bar after last call.

For me? I will not vote for Biden. Oregon is not a swing state, so my vote was always merely a signifier. Now, I will not lower my political candidate standard to support Biden. And, don’t tell me about the last 3 years. This election is about the next 4 years, even the next 100 years. If Biden stays in, well, America had a good run, didn’t it.

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“Just Look at Him” – A Debate Guide

Copyright CNN

Generally, I try not to pay too much attention to the accidental Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. But last night he was making the rounds of the cable news network with a simple message. (Okay, not the Biden hyped on Mountain Dew wackiness.) When asked about the Biden age issue, he had a one sentence response, “Just look at him.” Damn. The Republicans are messaging masters. Johnson didn’t have to go into specifics. Everyone knows what he meant.

lt’s amusing that the pundits are spending days blathering on about what issues will be the most important for the debate. Biden is weak on immigration and inflation. Trump is, well, Trump. His weaknesses seem to be his strength. Felon? Whatever… Misogynist… So? Fascist? Nah. Biden spends 5 days on a hilltop at Camp David preparing and Trump can’t be bothered. No, this debate is not about issues. This ain’t Lincoln v. Douglas.

Like millions of other Americans, I will spend 90 minutes trying to avoid the fetal position every time Biden speaks. Every stumble, every vacant eye stare, every mouth hanging open will be parsed endlessly and sliced into video clips to run in eternal loops on social media. Biden supporters, tell me you won’t be on the edge of your seat praying he doesn’t screw the pooch.

As for Trump, well, aren’t we also praying he shows up with his most crazy, gasping, glitching rally persona? That’s the whole ballgame. Trump must be so repugnant that Biden’s obvious flaws are okay enough. For the partisans, the election is already baked in. The entire campaign is for about 4% of the electorate in 3 states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Forget about Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. They are goners. 2020 putting them on the board was a Covid anomaly. And, the traditional swing states of Florida and Ohio? Ruby red now.

When, for fun, (I’m odd. I know.) I dive into social media threads about Biden’s his supporters never say he isn’t showing his age. They say, but Trump. That’s it. But Trump. I get it. I am beyond convinced, given the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 Project (If you don’t know what this is, you should.) and the fact that this time Trump will surround himself with budding fascists, if he wins, America as we have known it is done. Fini. Kaput. That is why I think that Johnson’s simple message is so devastating.

Look at him. Really watch him in public. Pull up almost any video of Biden walking out to the helicopter and tell me that stiff old man inspires confidence. We are in precarious times. Humans see age as weakness. Our culture banishes and punishes the old. “OK Boomer” For some insane reason, Democrats have given us a walking advertisement for frailty when we are craving strength and confidence.

When I geek out on surveys, the underlying numbers, the issue details, are simply bizarre. Of course, Americans are bathing in isolated Internet bubble news but areas Biden should be up are down. To paraphrase James Carville, It’s the Age Stupid. It doesn’t matter what great things Biden has done. People simply don’t think he can keep it up for 4 more years. (70% by one survey) On the most lizard brain level, that old man can’t keep us safe.

Need an example? Here’s the headline from a Washington Post survey released THIS MORNING. “Trump trusted more than Biden on democracy among key swing-state voters” I will save you pain. Don’t dig into the underlying details. It will have you reaching for the breakfast vodka.

Thursday’s debate is an eye test. If Biden passes it, we get to keep our democracy. If not, Trump is the next president. CNN put the podiums 8 feet apart. Why? Because they can get both candidates in a one shot. No jumping back and forth with camera angles. Everyone will see them almost side by side. America is comparing two old men. The winner will be the one who looks like they can handle the job for the next 4 years. Like Johnson said, “Just look at him.”

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Biden Has a Harris Problem — So Do We

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris walk to the Oval Office after and event in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Monday, April 11, 2022. Biden announced a final version of the administration’s ghost gun rule, which comes with the White House and the Justice Department under growing pressure to crack down on gun deaths. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

I watched the Kamala Harris interview on CNN. I tried to stay hopeful. No, really, I did. That hope lasted until she fumbled the first question in a blizzard of verbal nothingness. The interviewer then tried to help her by essentially giving her the right answers, and Harris merely repeated the new question back at the questioner without raising her voice at the end of the sentence. For the next 15 minutes, the pattern continued. The interview confirmed what the political world has known all along. Kamala Harris may be the least talented politician who has ever risen so far in elected office. She talks in word salads, hold the chicken. She fills the allotted time, and you walk away starved.

We are about to get the race for president nobody wants. Trump is running and could win. His following is a cult. Rock solid. (See Tim Alberta’s amazing book.) But why is Biden running again? Some say that now he has the job he wanted so badly, he just can’t let it go. Others say he is the only one who can beat Trump. That’s what he thinks. The decision to run reeks of hubris. He told us he was transitional. He lied. But watching Harris, I think we may be missing the real reason he is running for reelection. He is a wise, old politician. He knows political talent when he sees it. When he is standing at a podium and looks back to his right at Harris, part of him thinks, “Well, I sure fucked that one up.” Biden has a Harris problem, which means we have a Harris problem too.

Think back. Why Harris? In 2020, the Biden campaign was running fumes. Harris had quickly destroyed her own presidential campaign as soon as people got a large dose of her talking. The next state in the primary was South Carolina. It was make or break. In stepped Representative Jim Clyburn. In South Carolina, especially with the enormous number of black voters, Clyburn was the kingmaker. So, Biden cut a deal with Clyburn. He promised to make a black woman his running mate. It was a good political deal. A good thing for the country. Clyburn saved Biden, and that was that.

Harris was on the short list. Biden needed a tiebreaker. I am an old dude. We can be quite sentimental. Stay on the planet long enough and the threads of your own history guide your decisions. Biden was still grieving his, heir apparent, oldest son Beau. When Beau was the attorney general of Delaware, he had worked with, and liked, the AG for California, Harris. And that was it. Biden valued the opinion of his dead son over his cold-eyed political assessment of the woman who ran her own campaign into the ground. Grief is how we got Harris.

When it was clear that Trump was running again, Biden had a fresh problem. He had a VP with lower approval polls than his abysmal ratings. He knows, we know, that Harris cannot beat Trump. Like it or not, America won’t vote for a woman for president. If he kept his word and was transitional, he was honor bound to support a Harris bid. He had to back a loser. The Democratic primary would be nasty. Biden out of the way, I can think of 5 Democratic governors with the talent and ambition to run. Every president has an enormous ego. It’s in the job description. Biden boxed himself in. His legacy couldn’t be backing a loser. He had to run. Against all sanity, an 81-year-old man with declining capabilities blocked way of talented Democrats because he had given himself no choice.

A couple of weeks ago, driving home from a movie, my wife and I had a discussion, maybe an argument. It was one of the most bizarre moments we have shared. I asked, “Would it be better for America if Biden had a stroke or fell and broke his hip tomorrow?” I advocated for a stroke because that meant Harris would be president and the party would have an immediate need to begin a primary. The hip break would leave Biden functional with the hope he could recover in time. How insane is that? Still, I wake up every day and for a few seconds before I pick up my phone, I have hope that Trump or Biden died during the night setting off a scramble to find the next generation of candidates. With either of them gone, any 60-year-old, from either party would walk away with the election.

I have never been so gloomy about America’s prospects. Trump can win this. Need a primer on what that means: The Authoritarian Playbook for 2025. Biden is fading fast. Look at his stiff-legged walk. Listen to his mumbling. Realize his staff is hiding him. He has not done a press conference since July! He can barely do one scripted event a week. We need a candidate who can do 3 a day. He simply can’t do it anymore. Of course, Trump is fading too, but like it or not, this is now a classic change election and Trump is the change. The reason that the improving economy doesn’t stick to Biden is that people are using their feelings about the economy as a proxy for ‘Biden is too damn old.’ His age overwhelms all his messages. Watch him and listen to him enough and you just say no.

Forever, I create political ads I my head for fun. Got to do them for real for a moment, too. Here is the commercial you will see. It is aimed at the swing voters in the 6 states that will decide the election. 30 seconds. The first 15 seconds are clips of Biden verbal mistakes, then of him lost on stages. There is an abundance of those available. The second half is the classic black and white video of Harris word salad. The clips where she confuses even herself are perfect. Then the screen fills with her face, still in black and white. Rising from the background is her laugh. You know the one. It is incredibly annoying. The narrator comes in to read the tag line. “WE JUST CAN’T TAKE THE CHANCE. Paid for by Trump for President.” Trump’s face in color now on the screen. And, across American, independent voters are nodding in agreement.

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That Night Walt Curtis Hit On Me

Marian Wood Kolisch (American, 1920-2008), Walt Curtis, 1997, gelatin silver print, Bequest of Marian Wood Kolisch, © Portland Art Museum, 2009.30.14

When I read that Portland poet Walt Curtis had died at 82, it reminded me of a different Portland. For all my precarious existence back then, I loved it. I arrived in Portland in 1982, at the worst possible time. The timber economy had just collapsed. Unemployment was about 12%. I didn’t find work for almost a year. It was me, an epileptic black lab, and a red Toyota pickup. Living in a cheap, furnished apartment in the inner southeast, every weekday, I drove to the employment office. It was a lonely time, so at night I found cheap things to get out of the apartment. One of my favorites was open mic poetry readings, a habit I picked up while briefly living in the California wine country. For a 50-cent bottle of beer, I could be around people doing something they loved. Those readings, in dives all around downtown, were how I learned my new, gritty city.

I had been writing some stories and bad poetry for years and wanted to connect with other people who had the same word problem. There was a hippy coffee house on NW 23rd that had open mics every week. For the life of me, I can’t recall the name of the joint. It might be a bookstore now. I remember that the counterculture bus service called Green Turtle used the place as its Portland depot. I may have had my first ever espresso there. 50 cents, of course, but harder to milk the time at a table over that tiny cup. I quickly saw there were stars in the local scene who showed up almost every time and who seemed to know everyone in the room. Walt Curtis looked to be at the top of that pyramid. From his work, and listening to strangers talk, I found out he was the night clerk at a truly scary little grocery store in Old Town.

Portland then was a tough place. More decaying blue collar, than an outpost on the edge of a renascence. There was no place called The Pearl, just endless warehouses that felt on their last legs. They were places where people made things and fixed things. I savored the aroma of boiling wort at the Blitz Brewery. Malt and hops molecules steamed up from a stack atop of their brewery on Burnside. And, in the first bloom of gentrification, little theater companies repurposed empty spaces and built stages for surrounded by a hodgepodge of chairs and benches. You had to have what I call “street radar” to move around Old Town and inner northwest. I learned to avoid the shadows under the Lovejoy viaduct, and which abandoned loading docks were homes for street people. With time, I began to recognize the same panhandlers, druggies and drunks nodding off against walls.

There was Elvis, a guy in a dirty tux who carried around a wood cutout of a guitar that he strummed while singing Love Me Tender. He moved in and out of the doorways of rock clubs and poetry readings. One of my favorites was an open mic regular Bad George, a drunken black Irish street poet, who some nights was too wasted to string words together. Other nights, he took requests for his amazing opus called “Bad George Needs an Apartment,” a sonnet that detailed where he did and didn’t sleep. More than once, amidst the applause he genuinely asked if anyone had a place he could sleep that night.

Many people know about the famous west coast punk rock club Satyricon. (Kurt and Cortney met there.) The venue was a dingy long hall of a bar with a stage in the back. You could smell the stale beer, cigarettes and urine up the block as you approached the doorway. What many people don’t know is that the punk scene started as an open mic poetry reading at a bar on Burnside called The Mediterranean. The Med was another narrow space of booths that wrapped around a counter just inside the front door. Almost always at that counter was George Touhouliotis the owner and impresario. Under the counter was a small refrigerator where he kept quarts of dirt cheap Bohemian beer. When street people came in the door, he would reach under the counter, put a quart in a brown paper bag for them and point at the front door. It was George who bought the Satyricon space and moved the Med poetry scene there. Punk rock came soon after. I had accidentally plugged myself into the genesis.

One night, at a reading at a slightly more upscale venue in Old Town, Walt Curtis sat next to me and struck up a conversation. I was a little excited. I chatted with this celebrity of a strange little world. He asked about where I came from and why I was there. I told him I wrote poetry but was too shy to walk up to a mic. Mostly, I was happy that someone, anyone, was willing to have a conversation with me, let alone Walt. Only later, wiser, and much deeper into the scene, did I understand that, for Walt, I was a type. Tall, slim, young, a little lost, Walt was hitting on me. When I understood the truth of that moment, I realized that the conversation had ended abruptly when he figured out I was straight. Still, the encounter meant that on other nights I too was one of his nods as he walked through rooms. That was fine by me.

A full circle, of sorts, happened a couple of decades later when I was working to get Nick Fish elected to city council. Nick had been an aide in the first campaign of Congressman Barney Frank. Barney flew cross-country to do a fundraiser in the living room of now notorious democrat powerbroker, Terry Bean. Leaning against the fireplace, flanked by two beautiful young men, was Gus Van Sant, whose first film was based on Walt Curtis’s novella Mala Noche. Bean’s beautiful home was in the West Hills. It looked out over the much-changed city. From the back of the room, I thought about the unflinching street poet still down there somewhere.

And now, one of the last breathing ventages of that special time is gone.

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Countless Kids Rescued: Sally Retires

Tomorrow my wife will kiss me and leave for the office one last time. Of course, since I am a retired night owl, she will do that while I am blurry-eyed and still in bed. After decades of devoting her life to saving children from circumstances beyond their control, Sally is retiring as an educator at CARES NW. Not everyone gets to say that their career left the world a better place. My Sal does.

I met Sally at Standard Insurance. Napping on the couch of the breakroom, I opened my eyes to see the most remarkable pair of white, laced socks. Looking up, I saw a small woman with short curly black hair and a dead serious look. I soon discovered that behind that intensity was a woman who could be utterly goofy and willing to manifest her joy with her entire being. And the rest, as they say, is history.

From the first moments with Sally, she was on a mission. Working full time, she was also in a graduate program in counseling at Lewis and Clark. She worked around the clock to get her degree. We were together for me to see her hooding ceremony. I am not sure if I completely understood her path. Her practicum was at an inpatient facility for troubled children. She came home with stories about how she could reach little boys by embracing their love of the Power Rangers. She came up with the idea to call the boys “Healing Warriors.” There it was, Sally’s ability to use joy to connect with some of the most vulnerable little humans.

Sally is very good at smoothing over the answer to the question: what do you do for work? I, of course, enjoyed watching the questioner’s faces when I said it clearly. “My wife is a counsellor specializing in child sexual abuse and trauma.” Faces froze. Conversations stopped. When she was a clinician, I sometimes added, “Oh, she does groups with the non-offending parents. Think about that.” When they recovered, people would say something like “you are doing god’s work.” I wanted people to know that my wife had one of the toughest jobs on the planet. She faces, with compassion and determination, the things most normies don’t want to hear about. Telling the truth to others about her job was my expressing great pride. However, even now when I say that Sal is likely to give me an eye-roll.

One oddity of Sally’s work was her tools. She would gleefully come home from yard sales with children’s toys to use in her sand tray with the kids. In her off hours, she would craft signs, buttons and tags with messages to encourage clients. Intellect, compassion, and creativity: Sally used all she had to help kids recover their lives. But there was one hard and fast rule in our home. I could not listen to the details of her workday. I made the mistake of joining her for a happy hour with her peers, where they were telling war stories. Mostly women, they were all far tougher than me. I had to beg off and leave early.

My wife has always been groundbreaking in her profession. In the 90s, she devised a new way to work with teenaged girls. The punk rock world was full of ‘zines, handmade magazines using found pictures and cutout text wrapped around stories. The copier pages were then stapled together into magazines and passed around scenes across the country. She made her sample, then taught the girls how to make their own ‘zines. It was a remarkable way to have the victims regain their power and tell their story their way. I recall it was the first of several times Sally got noticed in her profession for a treatment approach.

But Sally wasn’t only saving the lives of her kids. She saved me. Some things are meant to be. I had a mental health crisis of my own around the turn of the century. One night, I fell into a state that was terrifying, what I found out is called a dissociative event. My professional wife immediately recognized what was happening and intervened with all her skill. She challenged me to think out of my narrow view of therapy and pursue a path that was eclectic then, more accepted now. They diagnosed me with PTSD from my childhood. Sally’s expertise that night, and her compassion ever since, gave me my life back. What a thing.

Eventually, even the toughest nut cracks under the weight of so many unbearable stories. Sally left frontline clinical work. But her next path, the one she is retiring from, may be the most mind-bending. She decided that the best way to help victims of trauma was to move upstream and prevent the events. And, when there are isolated, traumatized kids out there alone, train other professionals to see the signs and get the right help. Sally became a prevention educator.

But here’s the deal. While there are state and national organizations dedicated to prevention, the programs are sometimes a mess. As a former clinician, Sally had a special view of how to approach getting the right tools for the right people. She made the rounds, doing countless presentations to children in classrooms around the state. I once got to see her do her presentation. I was stunned. My mostly introvert wife is a powerhouse with a PowerPoint. She reads and owns rooms, adapting on the fly to get the messages across. Silly Sal disappears and intense, commanding Sal appears.

In the last phase of her career, Sally moved the program from teaching the kids to training the teachers and professionals. She devised a curriculum that has made her a national authority on child abuse prevention, taking her show on the road to national conferences. Sal served on the Oregon Governor’s task force on the issue and was a sought-after speaker. She has moved from saving lives one on one, and in groups, to training an army of people who can help kids. Even in retirement, they have asked her to consult statewide.

In the last weeks, as she announced her retirement, Sally has gotten the praise of her peers that she so deserves. I have had the privilege of being her support for all these years. Sometimes, my one job was to pull her into the shallow waters before she got too deep. I am busting with pride and love for Sally. And now, we get to figure out what our new life together is going to be. Damn, imagine my luck having this amazing woman as my partner to do that.

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Great Job Joe — Keep Your Promise and Retire Now

Photo AFP

“I can’t get up in the morning without one good rationalization.” Woody Allen

When I consider the possibility that Joe Biden is going to run for reelection, I feel like I am watching the opening scenes of a dystopian movie. You know the ones. They set you up for every other disaster in the next 90 minutes. It’s as simple as this. Almost all of us have had the privilege to know an 80-year-old human and not one of us has walked away from an hour with that beloved person saying, “You know, they should really run for president.” Joe Biden, for all he has accomplished, is too damn old to keep the job. As he now rationalizes that he is the only one for the job there is a seems to be a mass psychosis where seemingly rational Americans are overlooking the obvious and joining him in his fantasy.

I get it. The guy has wanted the job for his entire professional life. He finally got his dream job, and it turns out he is pretty good at it. But he also signed up for the gig saying explicitly he was going to do two things. First, he was going to calm things down. No insane hourly Tweets. No divisive language. A return to competent governing. By my eye: mission accomplished. Thing number 2 is trickier. He said he would be a transitional president, a bridge to the next generation of leadership. I liked that. Most of us liked that. It was a recognition that there is a season for every human and this good man knew his limits. Many of us voted for him on that basis alone. But the job alters people.

As a political observer, I am among the millions who like Joe but tense up every time we see him in front a live mic. Clearly, his staff is minimizing his unscripted time. He muddles names and places and timelines. He simply wanders off into the rhetorical distance the meanders his way back to relevance. Again, this is something we expect and tolerate in our elders. We are patient and give them latitude to be their age. But it is unacceptable in the President of the United States. Worse yet, it could be fatal in a candidate for president. Joe ran the last campaign from his home basement. A real campaign is a brutal, physical challenge. We have seen younger men ground down by the process. Think of Obama, eyes blurry and voice almost gone at the end of his campaigns. It’s no game for an 80-year-old.

The power of the presidency is a narcotic. The addiction’s most obvious symptom is a creeping narcissism. In the bubble around the White House the occupant comes to believe they are essential. Joe now believes he is the only one who can save us. He’s wrong. We would be fine without him. But the rationalization means he ignores what he knows about himself. The people around him, without considering it, become his props. They adjust presentation and schedule. They make excuses in the wake of mistakes. And, especially in this case, because he has had success and is a genuinely good guy, they don’t want to fail or abandon him. Who wants to tell grandpa it’s time to hand over the keys to the car for the safety of him and everyone else on the road?

But Trump, you say. Another blathering old man, I say. Stop looking at those polls that show Biden can beat Trump. They are meaningless. Instead, look at the polls that now say a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run again. His base is wavering. They want him to keep his promise. Obama suppressed a new generation of leadership to make Hilary president. How did that work out? In the wings there are dynamic Democrat governors who are being suppressed by the cult of the good old guy. This is what Trump and Biden share. Rational people are afraid to say the obvious out loud. Their times have come and gone. No More Boomers in the presidency.

Then there is the Kamala problem. Her ascendancy was part of deal, the deal that got Joe off the mat in the South Carolina primary. That’s a pity because I have seen few elected officials so utterly awful at the job of politics. She is the master of the meaningless word salad, stiff in presentation and incapable of correcting any of her weaknesses. Her own presidential campaign quickly revealed all her weaknesses and she flamed out in weeks. Joe is a political pro, and he sees this. He knows she would be a disaster. He also knows that should he step aside he would be bound to support a dead bang loser and doesn’twant that to be his last act. But he must be better than that. Let Harris fall on her own, as she surely will.            

If Biden was 60, I would already have a sign in my front yard. He is the only one of the last 5 presidents who knows that Putin is a killer. He has a connection, though now mostly performative, with blue collar Americans. He remains a small “l” liberal, but no longer has the energy to resist the damaging dogma of the progressive wing of the party. Joe, unlike Trump, can cut deals. Take off 20 years and I am in. But that isn’t reality. That’s the rationalization. It’s time everyone stops covering for the old guy and bring in a new generation of leadership because here’s the bottom-line, if the Republicans figure out how to dump Trump and run a vigorous younger candidate, that contrast with Biden alone will give them the White House in 2024.

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The Collapse of Civilization –- Damn Close

I really wanted to see a movie. Simple desire. Now that we live in the burbs, we I don’t have access to all the wonderful old theaters in the big city. I knew what I was getting into here. It’s a compromise. Sometimes, I would have to go see a movie at a Mega-Whopper-Plex. But hey, Sally’s office had “generously” given her 4 Regal passes as at thank you for a year’s hard work. An entire year. Passes in hand, we were off to Bridgeport Village Regal to see The Fabelmans.

I have never been to Bridgeport Village. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who knows me. From my front porch, I can see the roof of Nordstroms at Washington Square. I haven’t been to that mall since 1985 and don’t plan on breaking that record. I was expecting a mall at Bridgeport. Nope. My first surprise was that it was some an ersatz village of places to buy and eat things. Narrow streets through retail canyons. Chain restaurants. And today, a special treat, bitter cold driving rain. Nice. 

My first question for the designers. Do you hate humans? You see, the parking garage is expansive, but they strangely placed the human exits. The side of the garage facing the stores, the happy village, has no human exits or entries. Nothing. Oh, I see, it’s in a dark corner of a small surface lot on the other side of the automobile exit ramp. No useful signage, just the feeling that the designers said, “You got here genius, you figure it out.” Noted.

I was still happy to see the movie. In the Mega-Whopper-Plex world, the snacks are everything, the real profit center. But we had those passes, so we needed to talk to a human. Tucked next to the entrance doors was a lonely, confused human with a phone ear-jack standing on a sort of podium surrounded by screen kiosks.

Sally waved the passes and said, “Hello, we’d like two seats….”

Before she could finish, “The system is down.”

“What? We still want to see a movie.”

“I can’t help you.”

I looked at the surrounding screens, and they had an error message of some sort. Ear-jack was still looking around for someone, anyone, who could help him. I looked behind us at the many lines at the snack counter and realized that they had not moved since we arrived.

“Go to the refreshment counter. They can take your passes.”

I have been blown off before. This was a punt, but we obeyed the command. Sally, because it is her nature, remained hopeful. We picked a line. Behind the long counter, a row of teenagers in Regal gear were huddling with a roving boss who, by my estimate, may have been 20 years old, but he was ear-jacked which seemed to be the chevron of rank in the Regal army. Sally kept a place in line, and I wandered over to the now abandoned podium. The number of confused people in every line was growing.

To the left of the empty podium were two terminals that looked older, doing things I recognized from my IT days. Slightly staggered in their progress, on ancient green screens, they were working through what looked for all the world like a vestigial DOS PC reboot. I laughed out loud.

A woman walked up and asked, “Are they fixing it?”

 “Oh yea,” I said, “by the looks of it someone has just pressed Control/ALT/Delete.” Pointing to the screen, “See, those are Windows operating system boot up messages.”

 She flashed a look of recognition. Younger than me, but old enough, she knew the bitter disappointment of the Windows screen of death. She shook her head and walked away.

I went back to Sally.

 “Sal, we are fucked. A crashed Windows system has killed everything in this place.”

 Then behind us another ear-jack yelled, “We are now cash only!!”

I laughed again and looked down the counter. Young people who clearly had never dealt with cash without a screen in front of them to do the math were a herd of deer in the headlights. The older couple in front of us attempted to pay with a twenty. After much stumbling about, the kid handed them an uncertain amount of change and told them to just take the food. “It’s good.” The couple paused, looked around like thieves, and made their escape.

Counter Ear-jack had gone down the line handing out pens, pencils and little pieces of paper. A lad to my left stood looking at the pen in his hand as if an alien had just handed him a rectangular egg. The surface tension of basic technology, upon which he relied, had broken, and he was sliding into waves of chaos.

To her credit, Sally went into problem-solving mode.

“We have these passes. Can you just take them and write a note that we have paid then we can still go to the movie?”

The Regal soul presented a look like he had just time-shifted into a Fellini movie and Sal was speaking Italian.

“This will not work,” I whispered to my wife.

“The can figure out how to adapt to this,” she insisted.

“No, honey they can’t. Look around, no one prepared for this. There is no plan. They assume the tech will always work.”

She persisted, trying to help the dazed kid. Finally, he handed the passes back and said, “I can’t do it.”

At last, some truth.

I nudged Sally to leave. The crowd of the confused was growing with more victims still coming in the doors, blissfully unaware that, in this place, at this moment, their world had ended. Self preservation alarms went off. This could get ugly. I mean, they were there to watch more violent Marvel movies. Too many aspiring superheroes for the room to stabilize.

“But they aren’t problem solving,” said Sally.

“I know. We are old. We know how to do that, but they don’t know how. Honestly, look around. Look at their faces.”

Still, my wife wasn’t done. A female ear-jack, a tribal elder in her early 20s, had assumed the power position at the podium. Sally walked up to talk to her. I went back to the two screens. Now they were flashing messages that said they couldn’t find their DHCP server. I laughed harder than before. Basically, ET was trying to phone home, and the Internet had abandoned him. I walked back to my persistent wife.

“…but the system is still down. We can’t take those passes,” said elder female ear-jack.

I touched my wife’s shoulder. “Sal, it’s over here. This will not get better.” Female ear-jack looked down and offered what she could, the generic customer service smile. We walked away.

Back in the cold, apocalypse Sally told me what she says all the time.

“I have no expectation that we will always have power 24-hours a day.”

“I know. I know. Those kids in there are the resilient Zs we hear so much about. We just got a small taste. By the way honey, I am pretty sure that this theater gets its movies across the net. They digitally stream like everyone else, just with insanely expensive popcorn and vats of pop. So, my guess is that if there are people who made it into the theaters, they are sitting in the almost dark waiting for the Windows reboot too.”

We did not waste the afternoon. No, we got a benign preview of the collapse of civilization. But I still want to see that Spielberg movie.

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Ghost Dog at Our Feet

Mozy had been with us for over a year when Zoom arrived. We were cautious about how they met, backyard first so neither of them felt hemmed in. After a few sniffs, and the new boy demanding some play, they were bonded. I found pictures of Zoom that day, malnourished and jet black except for his white fur edges. I had forgotten how quickly Zoom was a shadow to his new big sister. Theirs’ was a tactile relationship. A paw, a head, a back, a neck, always in contact. And, if there was a squirrel to chase, they streaked off as a team. They would run side by side up to the little window above our library seat to monitor Sally and I coming and going. We learned to look up to see two dog faces smooshed together behind the narrow leaded glass. And sometimes, on a signal we humans could not discern, they jumped up from a sound sleep, ran up the stairs to the little window and assumed their post as second floor sentinels over the neighborhood.

The Day They Met

As age and disease crept up on Mozy, we both worried about Zoom. Mozy was Sally’s dog. Zoom is my little boy. If there are two dogs and two people, the dogs pick. That’s just the way it is. I had seen the breakup of our first pair where the survivor went into a deep funk and essentially gave up living without her companion. With every step to the end of Mozy’s life, my worry about Zoom increased. I read the stories about dog depression and how to help a dog who lost their partner.

After a normal, if not lively, evening, around midnight, Mozy fell into a health crisis. She made a rapidly approaching decision for us. I could get a vet here at 3 AM. I warned the vet that Zoom would bark and challenge her, as he did everyone (his Border Collie half protecting the herd) but that he wasn’t dangerous and would quickly calm down. Some say it is easier on the surviving dog if they are there at the end with their partner. I wasn’t sure. Quickly, there were three humans and 2 dogs on the floor of our bedroom. Sally was whispering into Mozy’s ear. I had Zoom in hand. At first, he was shaking but settled facing Mozy. He gently sniffed her nose to nose. I wondered if he knew what was coming. Maybe so. At various moments, he checked Mozy, my hand on his collar. When Mozy died, I let him go. He sniffer her up and down, even followed her out to the vet’s waiting car, stopping one more time to look at her face to face.

She Charmed Carrie and Fred.

We vowed not to leave the little guy alone for a few days. More than usual, he marked my every move. There is this thing that happens to me when a dog is gone. I have a strong sense of unoccupied space at the bottom of my vision. Mozy’s loss magnifies this feeling as she had depended on us for basic things for a long time. We helped her to her water and food dishes. Kept a schedule to relieve herself. We often walked out into the backyard, in all weather, to rescue her from her endless clockwise circling as she hunted for the door back to the house. Thinking about it now, it is remarkable how we came to accept her challenges as normal. I know from experience that, as surely as water levels when swimmers leave the pool, the emptiness finds a new equilibrium. Still, I catch myself automatically stepping around where Mozy used to lay.

Two days after Mozy died, I picked up Zoom’s food dish for dinner. There was something wrong. The stainless-steel bowl was a little dirty, some kibble crumbs and a hint of water. The sight caught me up short. I didn’t figure out what was wrong until I stood, filling his bowl with food. In all the time we had Mozy, I had never seen a dirty dog dish. The Collie-mix loved her food and lick-shined both dishes seeking the last molecule of goodness. Mozy woofed down her meals. Zoom is a slow, picky eater. Always done first, Mozy to stood patiently behind the little boy until he finished to lick his dish until we told her she was done. Late that night, I watched Zoom sleep and wondered if Zoom missed the ritual licking of his bowl.

The last couple of months, Zoom had been more and more watchful of Mozy. I believe, with their keen sense of smell, dogs know about disease in ways we can’t understand. When she became blind, he was sweetly tolerant of Mozy stepping on him while he was sleeping. He moved to accommodate her. Lately, when it was time to go outside, he didn’t run off; he stood near the door and waited for slow Mozy to come out with him. When the blind girl got stuck in the bathroom behind the door, he came to get us to free her. And, when she had an accident somewhere in the house, Zoom changed his aspect with us to tell us to fix it. Maybe I was just more aware, but it sure seemed like he was staying closer to Mozy.

It has been a week since Mozy left us. It will take more time for the clouds to lift. We try to fill Zoom’s life with his favorite things. He is getting longer walks and more frisbee. He is still sticking close. While I will never know, it sure seems like Zoom knows that Mozy is gone and never coming back. But like us, I am also convinced that he too sees a ghost dog in his world.

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